English Transcript

Cập nhật 27/08/2008 11:06:00

Since Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd floated the idea of an Asia-Pacific community two months ago the concept has been largely derided.

What has made it even more difficult for the Prime Minister is that he publicised the scheme without bothering to canvass the views of those most needed for the idea to get off the ground -- the region's leaders.

Despite some critics arguing that Mr Rudd will let the idea quietly drop as Michael Cavanagh reports publicly there is still backing for it within government.

When you hear phrases like "half-baked" a "stunt" and that "it is dead in the water" not just coming from political opponents -- but from the people that you need to have on your side -- it would be fair to think that an idea -- in this case the Australia Pacific Community is headed for oblivion.

While some of the statements may have been picked up by Mr Rudd's domestic political opponents -- they are based on comments coming from throughout the region.

One of the most used criticism is just what does the proposal mean and how will it work.

Mr Rudd and his Foreign Affairs Minister Stephen Smith keep on using the word "architecture' and that the target is that by 20 20 the key players will be able to sit down together and talk about both economics and strategic matters.

Stephen Smith says while there are organisations already in the region the shift in power and influence requires something more..

Smith "With ASEAN, for example, we started off in the mid-1960s with a half a dozen nations. I don't think anyone then envisaged that we'd see with ASEAN what we see today; the ASEAN Regional Forum, the East Asia Summit, Australia and other nations being dialogue partners.
These things evolve and the Prime Minister and I have both made it clear that one of two things will occur. What we see as a strategic need will evolve from some of the existing architecture. It might be APEC, it might be ASEAN-related, or there'll be a new piece of architecture. But the key point is, and I made this point tonight, we are in a new era.

However as the dynamics of the region change, some smaller nations that presently have a say in the bodies already operating are fearful their voice could no longer be heard.

Dr Robert Ayson from the Australian National University's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre says the development of China and India and the changing role of Japan could see the region's north along with the U.S driving the agenda..

A number of analysts also note that the possible reunification of the Korean Peninsula would also have a major effect on China, the U.S and Japan and therefore the rest of the region -- and that India as one of the other emerging powers is not a member of APEC but will increasingly enjoy influence.

Stephen Smith says another factor is that presently some of the bodies don't allow for other major differences.

Smith: "What it needs to do is to include all the key players in the region where they can have a conversation on both strategic matters, security and strategic matters, and also on economic and investment matters.Some of the key players, for example, won't have a strategic or a security conversation in APEC because there are players around the table who they don't regard as nation states. China and Taiwan is one example. So all of the pieces of architecture, whether it's APEC, whether it's ASEAN itself, whether it's the East Asian Summit, they all play very good roles as a summit. And we support that continuing activity. But either out of those by evolution or the creation of a new piece of architecture, we will find something which meets the emerging challenges."

Dr Ayson says a new body won't necessarily solve the problem.

Ayson: "There are issues in the region that are still difficult and sensitive, there are issues that some of the major powers are not necessarily going to want to have dealt with others in it in a multi-lateral framework . For example some of the territorial issues between say Japan and South Korea, between China and Japan those sorts of things are not necessarily going to be easily open up. China will be reluctant is always reluctant for China/Taiwan issues discussed so there are sensitive issues."

Prime Minister Rudd has appointed a former senior diplomat Richard Woolcott to travel the region selling the plan -- he will have his work cut out if he is to revive an idea that in some quarters is viewed as dead before it even drew breath.